July 2021: Q2 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Insider
I hope all is well with you and your family as we are in the midst of the City reopening. I don’t know about you, but for me it’s great to finally go outside sans mask. One aspect of visual communication that I took for granted was seeing and reading facial expressions. Obviously, this is hugely important in a professional environment when people are making home buying and selling decisions.
So what is going on in the San Francisco market? All market segments of single family homes are off-the-charts hot. The entry level segment (under $2m) is the most competitive. The top end has also been very active with notable sales as buyers look to find a home that accommodates all of their needs. I see top of the market buyers needing more functionality from a home - more than they needed pre-COVID. The home needs to provide entertaining space, private space, chef space, media / theater space, kid space, dedicated office – Zoom space, spa / workout space, pet cleaning space and outdoor space.
Where are the top sales and what do the homes look like? Usually, the top sales occur on the north side of town, but this year we have one entrant from the middle of the City (Twin Peaks).
2820 Scott Street: $17,450,000
150 Glenbrook Avenue: $17,500,000
2590 Green Street: $19,500,000
3414 Washington Street: $24,900,000
2920 Broadway Street: $43,500,000 (off market)
There has been a lot of talk lately about property pricing and overbids. If you are in the market for a single family home, you know how competitive available properties are to obtain. This competition is not just San Francisco; but all over the core Bay Area. As of late, there have been some mind-numbing prices paid for homes. These prices can be looked at in the form of an “above asking” price. Looking at San Francisco median single family sales since March 1st, the asking price was $1,550,000, the sale price was $1,810,000 and the days on the market were a paltry 11 days! The average over bid was 17%.
Where in San Francisco will you find the biggest overbids? The Sunset comes in at 24% (over asking) and second place is St. Francis Wood (18%). Where in San Francisco are homes selling for close to (or under) asking? Pacific Heights/Presidio Heights have a 2% average difference between list and sale price.
In looking at some notable over asking sales since March 1st, we have some high dollar sales (and several properties that pushed St. Francis Wood to the upper end of the overbid list).
268 Wawona Street; listed at $2,895,000, sold at $4,250,000 (47% above asking $)
86 San Jacinto Way; listed at $3,498,000, sold at $4,726,000 (35% above asking $)
195 San Leandro Way; listed at $3,995,000, sold at $5,400,000 (35% above asking $)
15 Walnut Street; listed at $7,500,000, sold at $9,998,000 (33% above asking $)
195 San Anselmo Avenue; listed at $3,800,000, sold at $4,999,999 (32% above asking $)
On to our corner of the City. It’s been super stagnant with pretty much zero inventory to trade as of late. Any home that comes to market - trades quickly. The common threads I am hearing from neighbors as to why they are not selling are (a) the brutal buyer competition for homes in other A+ Bay Area locations, (b) uncertainty on their return to office plan (c) they moved to their second home in Tahoe/Napa/Sonoma/etc. and are renting their SF house and (d) taxes…as in the large sum they would pay upon sale.
Remember 224 Sea Cliff? I reported on this troubled, heavily-leveraged property on and off over the last couple years. Well, its back. If you recall, the home was first listed in 2016 for $19,675,000, then dropped to $15,000,000 in 2019 (trustee sale with court confirmation subject to bankruptcy court approval). Then, in 2020, after a light sprucing up it was relisted at $17,500,000. No sale was ever consummated. The property was scheduled for auction (notice of default) on July 8th. Then, a few weeks prior to the auction, the senior lender rescinded the notice of default and the home now appears on Zillow for $15,375,000. Reading between the lines: one or more of the multiple lenders are ready to move on and expect to take some form of a loss.
On to the numbers for the quarter.
The top sale in Sea Cliff was 738 El Camino Del Mar. This home quietly sold off-market for $10,000,000. The home had been on the market since August 2020 with an asking price of $12,500,000 but it found no buyer and it was removed from MLS in late December. Although on face value it looks like the seller took a big haircut, they didn’t. I felt the buyer paid a premium at over $2400 per foot.
