Q2 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Corridor Insider
I hope the neighborhood market update finds you and your family safe and well. Hopefully, you are getting used to the new normal as it relates to SIP, work and play. The COVID crisis has definitely changed behavior patterns as it relates to real estate market cycles, buyer trends and of course demand (and in some cases, a lack-there-of).
San Francisco real estate has recovered from the ashes of March and April. It is somewhat of a tale of two sub-markets; single family homes and condos. Houses; most any house in the core Bay Area is getting a lot of activity. If it’s priced well; it will sell quickly with multiple offers. On the other hand, condos are taking longer to sell. Why? More inventory and less demand. Currently, we have a five month supply of condos and a two month supply of houses. Many condo owners are selling and buying single family homes. Desire to live in multi-unit/HOA buildings has somewhat diminished. Plus, prospective condo buyers (often younger and less affluent than house owners) have been more affected by the huge jump in unemployment. But, condo’s in small buildings in A locations are still selling.
The median house price hit a new monthly high in June ($1.8M) and high-end houses in particular, have seen very strong demand. This applies to virtually every market in the Bay Area. More affluent buyers; the demographic least affected by COVID-19 and also having the greatest financial resources have been jumping back into the market to a greater degree than other segments.
The first chart below illustrates the big rebound in buyer demand, as the number of listings accepting offers in June 2020 rose slightly higher on a year-over-year basis.
High-end sales staged a particularly strong recovery reaching a new high as a percentage of total sales. This is one of the factors behind the median house sales price hitting a new peak in June.
In our corner of the City activity is down. Not for demand; but for inventory. Due to the SIP, many of you have taken refuge in Napa, Sonoma, Lake Tahoe or out of state. Selling was put on hold and will be reevaluated for many in the fall.
On to the numbers. As referenced, activity is pretty quiet. Sea Cliff is flat and Lake Street activity was cut by than half. I do believe the slow streets modification to Lake Street put some sellers into pause mode until its determined (a) how much longer it will last and or (b) if it will be permanent.
Here are the sales numbers for the quarter:
The top sales were both very nice houses.
In neighborhood news, last quarter I reported on (what appeared to be) the end of road for 224 Sea Cliff Avenue and a pending sale. The trustee had accepted an offer of $13,700,000 (and the buyer had to pay transfer tax) and was looking for over-bids. Either the over-bids never materialized or the deal was killed by the bankruptcy court. I’d bet the latter.
I also reported on the proposed remodel of 178 Sea Cliff Avenue (and the less than positive response from the neighbors). Since last quarter the requested Discretionary Review (DR) of the plans (10,400-square-foot house) has been rejected and the application for the project building permit has been approved.
Also quietly moving through planning, is 4 Sea Cliff Avenue. I reported that the home sold off market for $16,000,000 in August of last year. The new owner wants to demolish the 11,351 square foot home (on a 26,000+ foot lot) overlooking Baker Beach. The owner is proposing a modern 9,321 square foot home with an ADU. The smaller lot coverage and lower stack height of the proposed home should appeal to some neighbors, but, you never know. I’ll give an update on this project in the Q3 report.