April 2025: San Francisco Real Estate Insider
Good Morning:
As we roll through the second week of April, uncertainty, much less economic pessimism and plunging household wealth is not typically a positive factor for housing markets. But, I am yet to see "it" impact in the local market. Whether the downward trend in the financial markets and consumer confidence continues is unknown. Policies, actions and reactions have been changing very quickly in 2025 and this could be a blip on the radar, not not. Hang in there!
One positive facor we are seeing in the market is mortgage rates are in a downward trajectory; currently at a six month low.
As far as the local market, buyer activity was off the charts for the city in the first quarter, albeit quite similar to 'Q1 2024 in terms of volume or closed sales. This year, a combination of unusually dry, warm weather with enthusiasm to own put most single family homes into multiple offer scenarios. Comparing single family sales between Q1 in 2024 vs. 2025, the big change for 2025 was the jump in the median overbid amount.
Also, in the luxury market ($5m+), the median overbid had a very strong jump. Closed sales in 'Q1 2024 were coming in under asking and in 2025 buyers were aggressive – coming in at a median of $750,000 over asking.
I also see buyers in the ultra-luxury ($10m+) category making large, significant purchases and this segment is now fluid again after a few years of stagnation. Although the sales volume numbers are much smaller, we are talking about a 3x jump in activity. I will dedicate more insight to this category next quarter when I have a full data set from the first half of the year.
In a “feel good” tale of days past when San Francisco was a city not negatively equated with an extreme cost of living, I sold a Sea Cliff home for a family on lower 26th Avenue in March. The trustee of the home had the actual classified ad for the home when the family acquired it in 1969. The asking price was $68,500…and the shrewd father negotiated the price to $65,000. That $13,000 down payment paid forward a nice return!
In closing, if the current economic cycles do not stabilize soon, I believe the real estate market could start shifting from a seller's market to a buyer’s markek (which means more inventory and better pricing for buyers). For buyers that have been sitting on the sidelines, it will be a great time to be opportunistic.
That is it for now. Have a great weekend. If you are thinking of a move, let’s put a plan in place to make the most of your asset. Likewise, if you have friends or colleagues looking to get into the market, feel free to pass my name along.
Call or email, anytime.