July 2024: Q2 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Insider
Hello & Happy Saturday.
Hopefully you and your family had a great 4th of July holiday. As we settle into summer the overall city market is quite fragmented. Property types, price-points and locations are not following any rhythm when it comes to sales. Single family homes under $3M continue to be the bright spot in San Francisco. Competition is pretty fierce for good homes in this category.
In San Francisco (and from what I hear from colleagues in Southern Marin and on the Peninsula) the topic du jour seems to be centered on “should I advise my seller to list now, or wait until fall.” The proper answer would be determined by the price point of the subject property. Properties under $3M should not wait to go to market; there are plenty of buyers today. Properties priced over $5M will most likely wait until fall to see full market exposure (but should be marketed off-line over the summer). That being said, properties at or around the $5M category are moving. As I’ve covered since Q1, luxury home sales in the Bay Area are on the upswing. So far this year we are up by two-thirds on a year-over-year comparison (April to April) when it comes to sales activity. The upward movement was pushed by a rallying stock market as well as market and buyer confidence.
Looking at the Bay Area, Santa Clara County has had by far the most sales between $3M and $5M (from Jan. 1 to May 15) with 590 sales. It also leads in the $5M to $10M category with 113 sales. There were 21 sales above $10M on the Peninsula so far this year, just slightly less than the rest of the nine-county Bay Areas put together.
San Francisco’s luxury market fell behind San Mateo and Santa Clara this year, but the city still had 200 deals over $3M (with 40 of those for condos, co-ops or TICs). Looking at San Francisco sales during the last 12 months:
<$3M - 50% of sales sold over asking
$3M to $5M - 40% of sales sold over asking
$5M to $10M - 28% sold over asking
>$10M- zero sales over asking
Here are a couple data points for the luxury market. The top sales in the Bay Area by county.
List price compared to final sale price segments by county.
On to our corner of the city.
Enthusiasm for the northwest corner of the city continues as we see newly listed homes sell quickly. In the Lake Street Corridor, there are no available homes but I expect to see a few come to market before Labor Day. Looking at the sales in the Corridor, properties have a median of nine days on the market before going into contract.
In Sea Cliff, there are two available properties and the sold properties (for the quarter) had a median of 12 days on the market. A good example of the demand is 70 25th Avenue. The property was listed at $3.1M and received 16 offers after a week on the market. The sale will close in the $4.1M range. This was not a big home or a view home and it had minimal outdoor space. But, it had character and was move-in ready.
In Sea Cliff, we did not see any $10M+ sales in the quarter but 290 Sea Cliff was listed at $26M and is currently in contract after less than a month on the “formal” market. The Lake Street Corridor continues to see homes trade at big numbers. Two sales cracked $5M and one surpassed $6M. It was not too long ago that anything in the Corridor that sold with a “$3” in front of it was a huge deal. Now, you can’t get a home in the Corridor that is move in ready for under $3M.
So who are these buyers making aggressive offers? I was never one to believe in the local political narrative that “crypto will save San Francisco” as espoused by a local mayor. But, I will say I am seeing their money. I’ve had three listings so far this year that sold (or are in contract to sell) to buyers in the crypto sector. Interestingly, I’ve only had one sale (year to date) that involved a buyer employed in tech / software / internet; listing or buyer side.
The numbers for the quarter.
Here are the top sales of the quarter.
If you know anyone looking to get into the neighborhood, I have a fantastic Lake Street Corridor home that is truly move-in ready. The home has a 3BR/2.5BA and is incredibly well done. And, when was the last time you came across a two car side-by-side garage in the neighborhood? All this for $3M.
Also, for those downsizing or helping the kids out with their first investment, I have a fantastic “entertainers” 2BR/2BA condo in a fully detached building. Windows on all four sides, over 1800 square feet of formal space and a separate home gym and storage / office space in the basement. Likely $1,785,000.
That is it for now. If you are ready to move up, trade down or simply out; please reach out. Likewise, if you have friends or colleagues looking to get into the neighborhood market, feel free to pass my name along.
Call or email, anytime.