January 2025: Q4 Sea Cliff - Lake Street Insider
Hello & Happy New Year:
I hope you had a relaxing holiday break and are as excited about 2025 as I am. Looking at the overall Bay Area market in 2024, it was a good year for home sales as we rebounded from a very lackluster 2023. In the nine county Bay Area, sales were up 9% versus 2023.
Looking at San Francisco, home sales were about 11% higher in 2024 than 2023 (which was the worst year since 2005). In my opinion, 2023 lagged due to high interest rates and large numbers of buyers leaving the city for “elsewhere.”
I expect to see 2025 sales numbers continue to improve over 2024 San Francisco sales numbers. Why? More people will move because of jobs, optimism (new home) and fear of missing out due to rising prices. In fact, the top four reasons people in the US (about 7.7% of the adult population) moved last year:
Newer, better or larger home: 14.3%
New job/job transfer: 14.1%
New household formation: 11.5%
Change in marital/partner status, etc.: 11.3%
Looking at core Bay Area neighborhoods that have the highest price of entry, San Francisco held four of the top ten spots in 2024:
Looking at some notable local transactions in 2024, the top single family sale was the well-reported 2840 Broadway. The 17,286 foot home sold for a jaw-dropping $71,000,000 to Lauren Powell Jobs. For reference, the top sale in California was a nine + acre Malibu estate that sold for $210,000,000.
The top condo / co-op sale for the year came out in a tie at $16,000,000:
2000 Washington Street: one of only two penthouse units in the pre-war building; a four-bedroom, six-bath co-op.
2288 Broadway #8: a stunning four-bedroom, four-bath, full floor view condo.
Speaking of the San Francisco luxury market, the sale of homes priced $5M+ came back to life in 2024 with a 28% increase in sales. This should set the stage for a solid luxury market in ’25.
On to our neighborhood. In terms of sales activity, the last quarter was quite different when looking at each neighborhood. In Sea Cliff, the sellers were non-existent. Just two sales for the quarter and two unsold properties (that were removed from the market). The demand for homes was evident with numerous buyers waiting for inventory that never materialized. Although the sales numbers are low for the quarter, keep in mind that in all of 2022, Sea Cliff realized less than ten sales, for 2023 ten sales in total and this year the number more than doubled to 20.
The long-marketed 540 El Camino Del Mar (aka the Robin Williams estate) finally found a buyer after a year on the market. The home was reduced from $25,000,000 to $20,000,000 and went through some internal ‘upgrades” and is currently pending to close. It should close in January.
Over in the Lake Street Corridor, sales were up year-over-year but the consecutive quarterly numbers were fairly flat at seven sales. The big take away from the Lake Street data is the price per foot and sales price numbers. All of the sales but two cracked the $4,000,000 threshold; several sales cracked the $1,300 per foot threshold and most sold with multiple offers. The demand is evident.
The numbers for the quarter.
The top sales of the quarter.
What will 2025 bring to the northwest corner of the City? Optimism. I have not had a conversation with one neighborhood owner that did not comment on positivity or optimism as it relates to (a) the local political outlook (b) their employment situation (c) economic and financial markets looking forward or (d) their family plans for this year. I see this translating to more sellers trading up versus trading out (of SF).
Let’s make 2025 a memorable year! If this is the year that you make a move, let’s put a plan in place to make the most of your asset. Likewise, if you have friends or colleagues looking to get into the neighborhood market, feel free to pass my name along.
Call or email, anytime.